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2040 Asteroid Won’t Hit Earth

By: Amina Khan

For those of you disappointed that the world didn’t end last week, there’s more bad news: The world probably won’t be ending in 2040, either – not from a certain giant asteroid, anyway.

Astronomers using the Gemini North telescope in Hawaii have found that the asteroid 2011 AG5 is no longer a major threat – it won’t be hitting Earth in February 2040, as had been earlier feared. That’s good to know, given that an asteroid that large – roughly 150 yards across – would have hit the Earth with several thousand times the combined energy of the two atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki that ended World War II.

2011 AG5 was earlier thought to have a 1-in-500 chance of hitting Earth – alarmingly high, by planetary science standards. But a new analysis shows that the asteroid doesn’t have much chance of even grazing our planet. It won’t get any closer than 550,000 miles, far outside the moon’s orbit.

Plenty of folks are still worried about asteroids hitting earth, however. The B612 Foundation, headed by a former astronaut, looks to map smaller asteroids that could smash into Earth. They say NASA isn’t concerned enough with smaller asteroids, which may not be as big as 2011 AG5 but are still massive enough to inflict a hefty bit of property damage on Earth.

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More Hazardous Asteroids

Matt Smith, CNN – About 4,700 asteroids are close enough and big enough to pose a risk to Earth, NASA estimated Wednesday after studying data beamed back from an orbiting telescope.

The figure — give or take 1,500 — is how many space rocks bigger than 100 meters (330 feet) across are believed to come within 5 million miles (8 million km) of Earth, or about 20 times farther away than the moon.

“It’s not something that people should panic about,” said Amy Mainzer, an astronomer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. “However, we are paying attention to the issue.”

NASA defines a potentially hazardous asteroid as one large enough to survive the intense heat generated by entry into the atmosphere and cause damage on a regional scale or worse. The figure released Wednesday is lower than a previous rough estimate had projected, but more are now thought to be in orbits inclined like Earth’s, making them more likely to cross its path.

Mainzer said asteroids in orbits pitched at a similar angle offer not only a hazard, but also an opportunity. They would be easier for spacecraft to reach.

“They’re a population of interest, and we want to keep an eye on them,” she said.

NASA says a 40-meter asteroid would strike the Earth with an impact comparable to a 3-megaton nuclear bomb. A 2-km asteroid striking Earth “would produce severe environmental damage on a global scale,” the space agency estimates, but an impact of that magnitude isn’t likely to occur more than twice per million years.

The estimate comes from infrared scans of the cosmos by the 16-inch WISE telescope, which was launched in December 2009. The instruments aboard the satellite allowed scientists to spot close-in asteroids by picking up the heat they emit, Mainzer said.

“It allows us to find the very dark asteroids, the ones that are more like a piece of coal and than shiny pavement,” she said. “We can also tell the difference between an asteroid that’s very large and very dark and a small one that’s very shiny.”

Mainzer said between 20% and 30% of the estimated 4,700 potentially hazardous objects have been discovered so far.

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End of The World Infographic

Check out this excellent infographic about the end of the world with arguments from believers and skeptics alike. David McCandless does a great job of taking a wealth of information and condensing it into an easy to read text/image combination. Head to InformationIsBeautiful.net to see more of his work!

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Happy Near Miss Day!

March 23 is Near Miss Day to commemorate an asteroid the size of a mountain missing our planet in 1989. Read more about Near Miss Day on the Daily Grid. This is a great holiday, because remember what an asteroid impact could do!

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Apophis

Apophis is the Greek name for an ancient Egyptian mythical demon. It is also the name given to asteroid 2004MN4 that’s on a potential collision course with Earth.

Apophis was discovered by Roy A Tucker, David J. Tholen, Fabrizio Bernardi and the Kitt Peak National Observatory in 2004 and the astronomical community has since taken quite an interest in it. By calculating the trajectory, scientists know that this asteroid will come within 18,300 miles from Earth on Friday April 13, 2029. This is close enough to dip below our communication satellites and have its orbit affected by Earth’s gravity. Just how close Apophis comes to our planet determines how much it is changed. There is a possibility its orbit will be altered enough to pass through a half-mile wide “keyhole” in space that would send it on a direct track to crash into us seven years later on April 13, 2036, Easter Sunday.

The possibility of this happening has been reported at a range from 1 in a few thousand by Senior Scientist at the Southwest Research Institute Dr. Clark Chapman to 1 in a million by “Bad Astronomer” Phil Plait. Most sources, including information from NASA, have settled on a 1 in 250,000 chance. If it is determined that it is on course to hit us, NASA will take evasive action to deter the asteroid.

Even if it does hit our planet, it is not large enough to bring about Armageddon. Its size has been estimated at anywhere between 200-350 meters in diameter. Wherever it hit would be destroyed and the surrounding area would suffer, but the entire planet would not be demolished. If it lands in the ocean, huge tidal waves would likely flood a large portion of North America and either Europe or Asia depending on which ocean it hit, and if it strikes ground, massive earthquakes and dust clouds would affect much of the world.

In the meantime, scientists are keeping their eye on Apophis and either way, April 14, 2029 should be a very interesting day. Assuming the world doesn’t end before that, of course.

Sources: NASA, Wikipedia, Deep Astronomy

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Outlast an Asteroid

If you don’t want to rely on winning the lottery process like in Deep Impact, then you should probably consider having your own underground shelter in case of an asteroid impact. Now you can buy a prefabricated bomb shelter and just bury it somewhere, or you can have a house-like bunker constructed to your specifications on your property!

Disaster Bunkers offers you a hand in the design project and will construct a safe shelter for you and your family that actually looks and feels like a house. If you are going to have to live there for the next ten years or more, you want to be comfortable, right? These bunkers aren’t just stylish though, they offer blast doors and air filtration systems as well.

While the shelter is a good place to start, you have to remember the other basics. You can go ahead and start shopping at Costco or Sam’s Club now, or you can check out OnlineSurvivalSupplies.com. Here you’ll find freeze dried food, ready to eat meals, first aid kits, and hygiene products to keep your family and friends full and fresh.

You’ll also want to think about entertainment. You can only enjoy each other’s conversation for so long before you start to go crazy. Stock up on some old-school board games, decks of cards, puzzles, and maybe coloring books for the little ones. You can try a few electronic travel games, but remember batteries could be better used for necessary survival items.

What else would you stock in your bunker?

 

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Get Your T-Shirts!

Check this great t-shirt from Cafe Press about an Asteroid Impact. It comes in a variety of colors and is only $24.50.

Why does the shirt mention April 13, 2036?

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G-Day Mate!

Here is a very informative case for why people in Australia have the greatest possibility for surviving an asteroid impact. The graphs are excellent, and the information is accurate assuming the impact zone is in the Atlantic Ocean. If you have a few minutes today, I highly suggest you take a look at How to Survive an Asteroid Impact.

 

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Asteroids in Hollywood

While an asteroid hitting our planet is an actual possibility, Hollywood’s solution probably is not. Our top movie about this devastating disaster is none other than Armageddon. This 1998 film featuring Bruce Willis, Liv Tyler, Ben Affleck, and Billy Bob Thornton struck a nerve with its great special effects and unexpected tender moments.

The story begins with the destruction of the Space Shuttle Atlantis and the entire crew by a meteor shower. NASA then discovers an asteroid the size of Texas is on a collision course with the planet and will strike in 18 days, destroying all life. The only solution is to shatter the asteroid into smaller, harmless pieces with a nuclear bomb. To ensure the asteroid’s destruction, NASA decides they have to drill 800 feet below the surface, and to do so they need oil driller Harry Stamper to help them out. Harry and his team are put through a 12-day training program then are sent into space with their mission.

Just in case there is someone out there who has still not seen this movie, we won’t reveal any spoilers. Rest assured the action and relationships between the characters make it worth a watch for men and women alike.

What do you think? Did you like the movie? Is there another asteroid disaster movie that should have been our favorite?

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Asteroid Impact

Image courtesy Don Davis, NASA

A devastating asteroid strike that could end all life on our planet…we know that it has happened before and it is bound to happen again, but will it be within our lifetime?

The asteroid that crashed into Earth ending the reign of the dinosaurs is estimated to be roughly nine miles wide. While NASA scientists say nothing so large is looming in our path today, they are tracking several hundred objects considered potentially hazardous to our planet.

In fact, in the last decade ten asteroids ranging from five to fifty meters have missed us by less than the distance to the moon. In 1989, one object 300 meters wide crossed Earth’s path where we stood merely six hours before. So what happens if one of these does collide with our planet?

Hundreds of thousands of people would die on impact, and those who survived would have a rough road ahead of them. The shock of the collision would cause massive earthquakes and tidal waves. A cloud of debris would shoot miles into our atmosphere blanketing the world from sunlight. The earth would be unbearably cold and plant life would cease to grow. Food would be scarce and we can only imagine how the survivors might turn on one another for what is left.

Stay tuned for survival tips and Asteroids in Hollywood. Don’t forget to check out other Ways Our World Could Actually End.

Sources: Wired.com, Mother Nature Network, How Stuff Works, Megacatastrophes!

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